Canadian Finance Recap: JULY 2025
The past few weeks have been a rollercoaster of news for the Canadian economy… and there were a few key shifts you should know about.
From interest rate moves, to U.S. job shocks and tariff tensions, here’s what happened and how it might affect your money in Canada.
🇨🇦 TSX & Bank of Canada
📉 Bank of Canada holds rates steady at 2.75%
On July 30, the Bank of Canada left its key rate at 2.75%, for the third straight meeting. Governor Tiff Macklem pointed to U.S. tariffs as a major drag on Canadian growth, saying they’re reducing business efficiency and keeping inflation stuck above target.
📈 TSX hits all-time highs
The S&P/TSX Composite hit a record 27,000 points in late July, up more than 10% year-to-date.
Shopify: The e-commerce giant posted record-breaking Q2 revenue, which pushed its stock higher (+20%) and made it Canada’s most valuable publicly traded company, surpassing RBC.
🧮 The economy’s cooling… but not collapsing
Canada grew 2.2% in Q1, thanks to export strength (before tariffs kicked in), but slowed in Q2.
Headline inflation is near 2%
Core inflation is 2.5%
Consumer spending is holding up, but uncertainty is growing
🇺🇸 Jobs, Rates & Tariff Tensions
📊 Job growth dipped… and past months were a lie?
In July, the U.S. added only 73,000 jobs (vs. ~109,000 forecast). On top of that, past data was revised down by 258,000 jobs.
Unemployment rose to 4.2%
Hiring stalled in manufacturing and government
Gains were mostly in healthcare and social services
🔥 Political chaos
President Trump fired the head of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, claiming the job numbers were "fake." Economists across the board called this a dangerous move.
💵 Earnings still looking strong
Despite economic drama, companies are still making money:
Palantir hit all-time highs after crushing Q2
Nvidia and Broadcom have strong earnings expected
S&P 500 earnings rose ~11.2% YoY, with 80% beating estimates
💡 More Canadians and Americans are shifting to international ETFs to hedge against U.S. volatility
🧠 What Canadian Investors Should Know
✅ The Bank of Canada is staying cautious, but if inflation cools, a rate cut might come later this year.
✅ Canada’s stock market had strong gains early… but U.S. volatility brought it back down.
✅ The U.S. job market isn’t as strong as we thought, and political drama could create more noise.
✅ Tariffs are raising costs globally, which impacts Canadian exporters and commodity prices.
✅ Tech earnings are still strong, but macroeconomic data is sending mixed signals.
🔎 What to Watch Next:
BoC’s next rate decision: September 17
U.S. job report revisions and policy moves
Updates on U.S. tariffs that affect Canadian sectors like autos, steel, and tech
Q2 earnings from Canadian energy and bank stocks (coming soon)
📩 Enjoyed This Recap?
Now you’re all caught up on what moved the markets, and what it means for your money.
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