$109,000 in TFSA room? (Plus: Why the TSX crushed the S&P 500)
2026 Kickoff: New Room, New Rules, New Returns
Happy New Year! We are turning the page on a historic 2025.
While many expected the U.S. markets to dominate, the TSX Index (Canadian stock market) was the quiet giant of 2025, returning a staggering 28.2%, easily outstripping the S&P 500’s 16.4% gain.
The "Great Canadian Comeback" was fuelled by soaring gold prices and a pivot toward "Value" sectors (Financials and Materials) that dominate our home market.
As we enter 2026, January is about more than resolutions; it’s about execution. Here is your guide to the first big week of the year:
💰 2026 Contribution Limits: Your New Room is Open
As of January 1, your registered accounts have reset. Here is your new tax-sheltered space for 2026:
TFSA (Tax-Free Savings Account):
2026 New Room: +$7,000
Total Cumulative Room: $109,000 (if you’ve been eligible since 2009 and never contributed).
Pro Tip: Any 2025 withdrawals are added back to your room today. Don’t let that space sit empty!
FHSA (First Home Savings Account):
2026 New Room: +$8,000
Max Room This Year: Up to $16,000 (if you opened it in 2025 and didn't contribute).
Note: Unlike the RRSP, FHSA contributions made in Jan/Feb cannot be backdated. They count for the 2026 tax year only!
RRSP (Registered Retirement Savings Plan):
2026 New Room: +18% of 2025 Income (Max: $33,810)
Deadline: You have until Monday, March 2, 2026, to contribute and deduct it from your 2025 tax return (using 2025 room).
The Wealth Loop: If you expect a refund, consider "grossing up." Reinvesting that refund back into your TFSA or RRSP creates a compounding tax benefit that acts like a "turbo boost" for your net worth.
🛍️ Stock to Watch: Aritzia (ATZ-TO) Reports Thursday
If 2025 belonged to the TSX, it certainly belonged to Aritzia. The stock was a high-fashion standout, skyrocketing over 118% in 2025 as it successfully transitioned from a Canadian favourite to a U.S. powerhouse.
The Thursday Report (Jan 8): Analysts are looking for EPS of $0.86.
The "U.S. Secret": Aritzia is winning because they’ve successfully cracked the U.S. market, which now accounts for ~60% of their total revenue. Their strategy of opening "High-Touch Boutique" flagships in cities like New York and Chicago has given them a moat that other retailers lack.
The Narrative: After Lululemon’s mixed holiday report, (where U.S. sales were slightly softer but International boomed) all eyes are on Aritzia’s "Everyday Luxury" segment. Are shoppers still buying $200 high-end staples, or is the "Trade-Down" hitting the boutique floor?
Why Watch Now? Investors want to see if their new mobile app launch and digital marketing spend are converting "window shoppers" into long-term loyalists. If they beat expectations again, it confirms that "Everyday Luxury" is the most resilient segment in retail.
👷 The Big Data: Jobs Report (Friday, Jan 9)
On Friday morning, Statistics Canada drops the December Employment Report… the first major piece of economic data for 2026.
The Forecast: After a surprisingly hot November (+54K jobs), RBC Economics is bracing for a "hangover." Economists Nathan Janzen and Claire Fan are forecasting a decline of 35,000 jobs for December.
The "Volatility" Factor: RBC economists note that the recent drop in unemployment to 6.5% is likely "difficult to sustain." They expect the rate to tick back up to 6.8% this Friday, viewing it as a "partial reversal" of November's seasonal hiring surge rather than a sign of a crashing economy.
The Stakes: This is the final major hurdle before the Bank of Canada’s January 28 interest rate decision.
The "Hold" Bias: RBC's base case is that the BoC is done with rate cuts and will hold steady at 2.25% for the rest of 2026.
The "Cut" Catalyst: For the Bank to pivot back to cuts, we would likely need to see a report significantly worse than RBC’s -35K forecast, showing that the labour market isn't just "rebalancing," but actually fracturing.
📝 2026 Strategy Checklist
[ ] Fund your 2026 space: Prioritize getting your $8,000 into your FHSA if you're saving for a home to grab that immediate tax deduction. Already a homeowner? Pivot that focus to your $7,000 TFSA room for tax-free growth you can access anytime.
[ ] RRSP Top-Up: You have 56 days left to lower your 2025 tax bill. Don't wait until the March 2nd deadline… beat the bank rushes and the website crashes by contributing early.
[ ] Rebalance Your Winners: With the TSX up a massive 28.2% in 2025, your portfolio is likely "Canada-heavy." Check your allocations to Financials and Gold; it might be time to lock in some profits and re-diversify.
2026 is starting with a record-breaking TSX and a fresh batch of tax-sheltered room. Whether you are eyeing the Aritzia earnings volatility this Thursday or just looking to shield your savings from the CRA, the next five days are critical for setting your trajectory.
Let's make 2026 your most profitable year yet.
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