6 Stocks to Watch: 100% Tariffs vs. The TSX
Record Highs vs. Trade Wars: The Big 6-Stock Survival Guide
The TSX is currently a "tale of two markets." While we spent the week celebrating a historic climb past 33,100, the weekend brought a cold front from the South.
President Trump’s Saturday morning "Nuclear Threat" has thrown the Carney-China deal into the crosshairs, and the "Governor Carney" taunts are back in full force.
Here is your essential recap of the record-breaking week that was, and the high-voltage week ahead.
📈 The Daily Market Flow
While U.S. markets were mixed and volatile, the TSX continued its "North Star" rally, finishing Friday at a new all-time record close of 33,144.98.
Monday, Jan 19 (U.S. Stat Holiday): TSX rose +0.15% to 33,091. It was a low-volume session with Wall Street dark.
Tuesday, Jan 20 (-1.03%): A "Reality Check" Tuesday. The index slid as the 10% Credit Card Cap deadline arrived, mixed with the Trump-Greenland Dilemma. The uncertainty caused a brief sell-off in financials and tech.
Wednesday, Jan 21 (+0.31%): The "Davos Bounce." Trump’s meeting with NATO leaders signalled a temporary truce on tariffs, helping the TSX recover.
Thursday, Jan 22 (+0.46%): Momentum returned as the TSX crossed the 33,100 mark again, fuelled by energy stocks and the finalized Canada-China "Energy Roadmap."
Friday, Jan 23 (+0.43%): The Energy Breakout. The TSX closed at a record 33,144.98. While U.S. tech stumbled, Canadian energy producers (like CNQ, PPL and CVE) lifted the index, and Gold settled at a stunning $4,976.20/oz.
🇨🇦 Trump’s 100% Tariff Threat
On Saturday morning (Jan 24), President Trump issued his most aggressive warning yet on Truth Social, aimed directly at PM Mark Carney’s new China deal.
The Threat: Trump warned that if Canada becomes a "Drop-Off Port" for Chinese EVs, he will hit us with a 100% tariff against ALL Canadian goods.
The "Drop-Off Port" Accusation: Trump referred to Carney as "Governor Carney," accusing him of trying to make Canada a "Drop-Off Port" for China to sneak products into the U.S., and views the trade deal as a betrayal of North American interests.
The Economic Reality: These tariffs are ultimately paid by U.S. consumers. While the threat targets Canadian exporters, the 100% charge would lead to immediate, massive price hikes on groceries, fuel, and cars in the U.S.
The Stance: For now, Canada has yet to retaliate, but the stakes for our $3.6 billion per day trade relationship have never been higher. Market analysts expect a "Red Opening" for the Loonie on Monday as traders price in this "Nuclear Option."
🌏 The Greenland “Framework”: From Tariffs to Truce
The most dramatic story of the week started with a threat and ended with a handshake in Davos.
The Conflict: On Tuesday, U.S. markets slid 2% after President Trump warned European allies that tariffs were non-negotiable without a Greenland deal.
The Pivot: On Wednesday at the World Economic Forum, Trump met with NATO’s Mark Rutte and announced a "Framework of a Future Deal."
The Result: Trump withdrew the immediate threat of 10% tariffs on the "Greenland Eight." In exchange, NATO agreed to a massive security ramp-up in the Arctic.
🏛️ BoC Watch: The “Jan 28” Decision
This Wednesday, the Bank of Canada takes center stage for the first rate decision of the year.
The Expectation: Hold at 2.25%. The consensus among the "Big Five" is that the BoC is in "Wait and See" mode.
The Conflict: Core inflation is sticking near 2.8%, but Trump’s tariff threats act as a massive "deflationary shock" that could stall Canadian growth.
The Focus: Watch the Monetary Policy Report (MPR). If Macklem sounds dovish due to trade uncertainty, the Loonie could slide further.
📊 Earnings Watch: The Heavyweight Week
Forget the Trump noise… this week is about the titans that dictate the direction of the stock market. Here is the breakdown of why these 6 giants matter for your portfolio in 2026.
Microsoft (MSFT) – Wednesday, Jan 28:
The AI Toll Booth: Microsoft is turning $100+ Billion in data centre infrastructure into the world’s most powerful rental engine. They aren't just building software; they are building the physical backbone the rest of the world must rent to survive the AI era.
⚠️ Valuation Risk: If AI adoption metrics show any signs of a plateau, MSFT's premium valuation makes it vulnerable to a sharp pullback.
Meta (META) – Wednesday, Jan 28:
The Cash Machine: Meta has the highest user engagement in its history. By using AI to perfectly target ads to over 3.5 billion daily active users, they have turned Instagram and WhatsApp into the most efficient money-printing machines in the tech sector.
⚠️ Ad Spend Fragility: Meta’s capital spending is projected to exceed $100 Billion this year. If the "ROI" (return on investment) on that AI spend doesn't show up in the bottom line, the stock has a long way to fall.
Apple (AAPL) – Thursday, Jan 29:
The Ecosystem Lock: The Ecosystem Lock: At a $3.6 Trillion valuation, Apple is the "Gold Standard" of consumer loyalty. Their new "Apple Creative studio" subscription model is the next big catalyst, turning their 2 billion iPhone users into recurring monthly revenue.
⚠️ The Tariff Target: Apple is the "poster child" for U.S.-China relations. Any geopolitical heat or supply chain friction hits their stock first.
Visa & Mastercard (V) & (MA) – Thursday, Jan 29:
The Digital Moat: These aren't credit card companies; they are global toll bridges. Every time someone taps a phone or clicks "buy" anywhere on earth, they take a tiny fee. They are the ultimate "inflation hedge" because their revenue grows automatically as prices go up.
⚠️ Regulatory Heat: Increased government pressure on interchange fees and interest rate caps (like the 10% credit card cap from Trump) could squeeze their margins in the coming years.
ExxonMobil (XOM) – Friday, Jan 30:
The Energy Fortress: While others pivoted away from oil, Exxon doubled down. They are now the most efficient driller in the world, with a plan to return $20 Billion to shareholders in 2026 via buybacks. They are the "Safety Play" and have been a primary beneficiary of the recent Venezuela crisis.
⚠️ Commodity Crash: If a trade war stalls global growth, the demand for oil (and Exxon’s stock price) will drop rapidly.
📅 Looking Ahead: Navigating the “January Squeeze”
As we head into the final week of the month, we are seeing a rare collision of record-high stock prices and record-high geopolitical risk. The TSX at 33,144.98 is a victory for Canadian resources, but Trump’s "Nuclear Tariff" threat reminds us that our economy is still deeply tethered to the mood in Washington.
The Bottom Line: This week is about defensive positioning. While the Bank of Canada will likely hold rates at 2.25%, the real volatility will come from the "Magnificent 7" earnings calls. If these tech giants show that AI is finally translating into industrial-scale profits, the TSX could push toward 34,000. However, if the tariff talk turns into action, we expect a massive rotation back into "Hard Assets" like Gold and Energy.
The TFSA Play: With your new $7,000 room, look for "Value" plays that have been unfairly beaten down by tariff talk.
The RRSP Deadline: You have exactly 35 days until the March 2 deadline. Don't let the headlines distract you from your contribution and tax deduction goals. Check your tax numbers, and plan ahead!
📲 Market volatility doesn't have to mean personal stress. Whether you're worried about your tech exposure or looking to capitalize on the energy breakout, having a second pair of eyes on your investment portfolio can change the game. I have limited spots open this week to help you map it out.
[Click here to schedule a "2026 Investment Mentorship Session"].