TSX hits 33,000: The Beijing Deal, Trump’s Tariffs & 4 Stocks to Watch
Arctic Standoffs, Beijing Deals, and the New TSX Peak
The TSX is proving the doubters wrong. Despite a volatile start to the year, Canada’s main index didn't just climb the wall of worry this week… it vaulted over it to a new historic peak close of 33,040.55.
While the world watched Prime Minister Mark Carney’s high-stakes energy mission to Beijing, Bay Street quietly pushed the TSX to a fresh milestone.
Here is the full breakdown for Jan 12 – 16, 2026:
📈 The Daily Market Flow
The index gained 1.3% on the week, proving that the Canadian bull market has legs even in a volatile geopolitical climate.
Monday, Jan 12 (+0.8%): Momentum: Strong start as materials and banks carry the weekend's positive energy.
Tuesday, Jan 13 (-0.01%): Flatline: Markets pause as Carney touches down in China; tech takes a slight breather.
Wednesday, Jan 14 (+0.14%): Sector Rotation: Money flows out of high-growth tech and back into defensive "moat" stocks.
Thursday, Jan 15 (+0.34%): Energy Boost: Early news of a Canada-China energy pact lifts heavy oil producers.
Friday, Jan 16 (+0.04%): MILESTONE: A marginal gain is enough to close at a record 33,040.55.
🌏 The "Beijing Pact": Carney’s Energy Pivot
The biggest strategic move of 2026 happened on Friday in the Great Hall of the People. PM Mark Carney signed a "Strategic Partnership" with President Xi Jinping, the first such visit by a Canadian leader in a decade.
The EV "Quid-Pro-Quo": Canada is dropping its 100% "punitive" tariffs on Chinese EVs. In its place, a new quota allows 49,000 vehicles annually at a significantly lower 6.1% tariff.
The "Anti-Venezuela" Strategy: This trip was a direct response to the recent Venezuela crisis. By courting Beijing, Canada is signalling to the U.S. that we have other customers for our heavy crude if Gulf Coast refineries get crowded.
Affordability First: By 2030, 50% of these imports must be "affordable" models (under $35,000 CAD). Carney’s goal is to lure Chinese EV giants into building joint-venture manufacturing plants on Canadian soil within three years.
The Canola Win: In exchange, China is slashing tariffs on Canadian Canola seed from 84% to 15% (effective March 1), unlocking roughly $4 billion in potential export value for Prairie farmers.
The "Loonie" Snap: This trade optimism helped the Canadian Dollar finally snap its 9-day losing streak, stabilizing near 71.88 cents US.
📊 Earnings Radar: Trump’s 10% Rate Cap & The AI "Gut Check"
Note: U.S. markets are closed today (Monday) for MLK Day. The action starts Tuesday.
Capital One (COF) – Thursday, Jan 22: The "Trump Cap" Factor: President Trump has demanded a one-year, 10% cap on credit card interest rates, set to take effect Jan 20. Since interest makes up ~70% of COF's revenue, the market is bracing for how they’ll adjust lending standards.
Netflix (NFLX) – Tuesday, Jan 20: Beyond sub growth, the market is buzzing over an $80 Billion+ bid for Warner Bros. Discovery. Any hint of progress on this merger could ignite the media sector.
Intel (INTC) – Thursday, Jan 22: The "Turnaround Story." After the government took a strategic stake last year, the stock has been a high-flyer (up over 135% in the past year). Investors need to see that their "AI PC" chips are actually shipping.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) – Wednesday, Jan 21: The ultimate health check for the consumer. J&J’s outlook will reveal if the "Goldilocks" economy is helping households keep up with healthcare spending.
🌍 The Greenland Standoff: Geopolitics Meets the "Big Bazooka"
Just as the "Venezuela Panic" began to fade, a new Arctic storm hit global markets over the weekend. On Saturday, President Trump announced a massive new tariff offensive aimed at European allies who have opposed his bid to purchase Greenland.
The "10/25" Threat: Starting February 1, a 10% tariff will hit all goods from eight countries (including Denmark, France, and the UK). If a deal for Greenland isn't reached by June 1, the tariff jumps to 25%.
The European "Bazooka": The EU is already weighing a $150 billion CAD retaliation package. French President Macron has called for an "Anti-Coercion" response that could shut U.S. companies out of key contracts.
Market Reaction: With U.S. markets closed today, the "risk-off" trade is surging. Gold hit a fresh record high of $4,698/oz this morning as investors seek safety.
📅 The Week Ahead: Positioning for the "January 20" Shift
While the TSX celebrates its 33,000 milestone, the "real world" economy is about to feel a jolt. Between Trump's credit card rate cap taking effect tomorrow and the brewing trade war in Europe, the 2026 playbook is being rewritten in real-time.
Tax Season is Here: Your new $7,000 TFSA room is officially open, and the 2026 RRSP limit has climbed to a max of $33,810.
The Deadline: You have until Monday, March 2, 2026, to contribute to your RRSP and have it count against your 2025 taxes.
The BoC Watch: We are now just 9 days away from the January 28 Bank of Canada meeting. The "Carney-China" deal has given the Loonie some breathing room, but will it be enough to allow the BoC to stay at their 2.25% floor?
Don't navigate this volatility alone. Whether you're looking to deploy your new TFSA room or protect your portfolio from the "Greenland Tariffs," let's get you a plan.
[Click here to schedule a "2026 Investment Roadmap Session"].
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